{"id":588,"date":"2020-11-05T05:17:50","date_gmt":"2020-11-05T05:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/?page_id=588"},"modified":"2020-11-05T05:19:25","modified_gmt":"2020-11-05T05:19:25","slug":"3rd-quarter-2020","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/3rd-quarter-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"3rd Quarter 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"
3rd QUARTER 2020 ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/strong>October 13, 2020
\n<\/strong>
By Harris L. Kempner, Jr., President<\/strong>
\n

<\/div>\nThe U.S. economy is recovering, but the recovery is slowing down from the surge in the 2nd Quarter. There still remains high unemployment of approximately 7.9% and over 11 million people unemployed, which is as high or higher at the worst of the recession of 2008 \u2013 2009. We are also facing a gradual return of high levels of COVID-19 this fall, which could conceivably cause open businesses to close once more in parts of the country. However, to balance this off, we think that new stimulus is coming post-election, no matter who wins. In some electoral cases it is likely to be larger than others but will be a substantial amount no matter what \u2013 at least $1 trillion. This new stimulus will begin to lead us back to solid growth and some reduced unemployment in the 4th Quarter.<\/p>\n

In addition, we are getting closer to treatments as well as vaccines for COVID. Whatever happens this fall and winter in the short-term, we believe that by the early part of next year, there will be the beginnings of various means of attacking COVID. So, in the very short-term this year is clouded with uncertainties, including the election, but longer-term, we presently feel that the trends of science and stimulus will make it possible for the economy to grow about 3-4% in 2021.<\/p>\n

However, it needs to be recognized that beneath the surface of this steady growth in the economy, the economy is severely bifurcated. Instead of a \u201cU\u201d or a \u201cV\u201d, it looks much more like a \u201cK\u201d. The rising top of the \u201cK\u201d is the segment of the economy in which the employment has been growing all through the COVID pandemic \u2013 technology companies, goods such as foods, consumer items, some financial services, etc. Those who work in those industries are doing well with income growth being okay and savings rates being very high compared to the past. Those who own houses are benefiting from increased valuations for borrowing purposes.<\/p>\n

But on the other hand, the down-sloping \u201cK\u201d includes the poorest, large numbers of people of color, and the least educated. Unlike the first part of this year, their situation is not only bad, it seems to us to be trending somewhat worse as far as unemployment is concerned. We want to point this out because these uneven results are politically explosive for the country no matter who wins, and must be kept in mind when deciding how well the U.S. economy is doing in the next year. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Past Letters<\/p>\n

2nd Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\n

1st Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\n

4th\u00a0Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd\u00a0Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd\u00a0Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\n

1st\u00a0Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\n

4th\u00a0Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd\u00a0Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd\u00a0Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\n

1st Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\n

4th Quarter 2017<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd Quarter 2017<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd Quarter 2017<\/a><\/p>\n

1st Quarter 2017<\/a><\/p>\n

4th Quarter 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd Quarter 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd Quarter 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

1st Quarter 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

4th Quarter 2015<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd Quarter 2015<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd Quarter 2015<\/a><\/p>\n

1st Quarter 2015<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

1st Quarter 2014<\/a><\/p>\n

2nd Quarter 2014<\/a><\/p>\n

3rd Quarter 2014<\/a><\/p>\n

4th Quarter 2014<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

4th Quarter 2013<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

3rd QUARTER 2020 ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER October 13, 2020 By Harris L. Kempner, Jr., President The U.S. economy is recovering, but the recovery is slowing down from the surge in the 2nd Quarter. There still remains high unemployment of approximately 7.9% … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-fullwidth.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/588"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=588"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":591,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/588\/revisions\/591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}