{"id":1175,"date":"2024-01-19T14:14:02","date_gmt":"2024-01-19T14:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/?page_id=1175"},"modified":"2024-01-19T14:16:39","modified_gmt":"2024-01-19T14:16:39","slug":"4th-quarter-2023","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/4th-quarter-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"4th QUARTER 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n
KEMPNER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC.<\/strong>
4th QUARTER ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER<\/strong>
January 10, 2024<\/strong>
By Harris L. Kempner, Jr., President

<\/strong> With the worldwide complications of two wars added to our fundamental analysis, we are firmer in our belief that a recession will be underway in 2024, most likely beginning with negative economic growth in the first quarter and continuing on for at least one more. Of course, the most important economic rationale for this is the Fed tightening, which has led to a yield curve inversion that has been going on for some 310 days now. It typically takes 380 days for the inversion to affect a significant slowdown in the economy. We think that is in process right now.

Lots of signs indicate a slowdown. Among the more important ones are wage increases that are slowing from about 4.4% in the third quarter to around 4% in the fourth quarter according to economists like Nancy Lazar with Piper Sandler. What is maybe more interesting in terms of Fed policy, and which could make things much worse, is that for the first time in about 50 years, the Fed has tightened rather than pausing or easing after a financial crisis. Recently, Evercore ISI listed 13 financial crises over the last 52 years, from Penn Central in 1971 (remember that?) to the banking crisis this spring. This year\u2019s incidence is the only example of the Fed tightening after such a financial crack. This absolutely raises the odds of another financial shock, and this along with slowing labor growth and rapidly lowering inflation, is another indication to us of a recession beginning in the first quarter of 2024.<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Past Letters\r\n

3rd Quarter 2023<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2023<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2023<\/a><\/p>\r\n

4th Quarter 2022<\/a><\/p>\r\n

3rd Quarter 2022<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2022<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2022<\/a><\/p>\r\n

4th Quarter 2021<\/a><\/p>\r\n

3rd Quarter 2021<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2021<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2021<\/a><\/p>\r\n

4th Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\r\n

3rd Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2020<\/a><\/p>\r\n

4th Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\r\n

3rd Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2019<\/a><\/p>\r\n

4th Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\r\n

3rd Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\r\n

2nd Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\r\n

1st Quarter 2018<\/a><\/p>\r\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KEMPNER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. 4th QUARTER ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER January 10, 2024 By Harris L. Kempner, Jr., President With the worldwide complications of two wars added to our fundamental analysis, we are firmer in our belief that a recession will be … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-fullwidth.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1175"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1175"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1181,"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1175\/revisions\/1181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kempnercapital.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}